What happens when cycles appear to fail ?
I never hide from things that fail.
Im writing as Friday 16th trade has closed, and obviously we have traded past the June 5 date.
Whilst I am not expecting a major pivot here just a reaction, these things are interesting to watch.
At major pivots or turns I am very interested because I need to manage investment positions as well as day to day trades.
If you are wed to a turn like June 5 you are likely to be sorely disappointed - GANN would have, and I have, lost no money here, in fact you made money following the mechanical trading system.
In any case what happens now?
Gann provided a number of curves for his clients as do I. He would monitor them and update his view, in his supply and demand letter or by telegram or letter as the market unfolded.
The 60 year cycle has been the prominent cycle for some time but they change, and our subscribers and workshop attendees have been aware I believed the cycle would change again this year.
Why do I say this ? Because I know where we are in the bigger cycle as do they.
The question is this : Are we due for a reaction here? and Is it of any benefit to us?
In any case what would GANN do now? He would be looking, as I have been, at the next closest fit curve.
In in 2023 the next 2 most likley cycles which our workshop attendees have, have tops on 17 June and 22 June .
An interesting time. there is much happening around this period.
GANN traders will recognise these types of things: Saturn goes retrograde on the 18th, we also have a new moon , we are 168 days from the start of the year ….. the 22 is the Seasonal date. W behave one of GANNS key trading rules play
There is much more … it goes on and on.
So it would not be unreasonable, but not guaranteed, something , a reaction may happen here.
The thing is we continue to trade the mechanical system, watching the key inflection dates in the additional curves until we settle into one in particular.
You can calculate these curves years in advance if you wish. Gann tells us how to.
As a day to day trader I dont really care, as an investor im very interested when we get to the end of the cycle.
So stay alert keep your eye on the ball and stick to your plan.
May the GoFR be with you.
Forecasting UPDATE - Will the 60 year cycle hold ?
As it’s Gann’s birthday on the 6th of June, tomorrow, and 5th June 1963 was a tradable high, I thought I’d review the 60 Cycle forecast at this point in time.
The chart will say it all, and the proof will be in the pudding after the fact. But we have been following the 60 year cycle for some time now with uncanny accuracy.
This won’t go on like this, the cycle will change but right now its been a very good roadmap.
Gann told us in plain English how to do these things, and our subscribers and workshop attendees have had this information months, in fact years in advance - perhaps it’s useful perhaps not but its certainly been a great guide for those looking to take longer term positions.
My previous post looked at the October low in 2022 and the run out of there.
Recently the market has been running a few days ahead of the forecast, now it appears we have been killing time to catch up - Today is the day 5th June, lets see what happens - But a 30-45 day run into July is certainly possible here and would confirm this cycle is still alive and well..
Sometimes this things work out to the day, sometimes within a few days but the overall pattern remains intact. In the hands of a trader wth a strong system this kind of roadmap is like bars of gold in the basement.
The question is : Do you have a plan to take advantage of this information?
Please remember nothing in this blog constitutes trading advice. They are simply market observations.
For those of us with a plan we simply keep banging away, but I’m sure you will agree it’s fascinating stuff.
If you don’t have a solid plan or just want to know more about GANN and how he did this maybe we can help.
Promises of blue sky are great - Profit in the bank is better.
May the GoFR be with you.
Forecasting UPDATE - Looks like we arrived !
I posted a note on forecasting and the current Cycle a couple of months back - end of August actually, nearly 3 months in advance.
Anyway, the proof is always in the pudding and as my subscribers know I do not hide from my notes if i’m wrong !
I’m a trader, that’s what I do, and when I post something it’s done with the intent of being valuable.
It’s always disappointing when I get comments like Scam or Garbage - probably one of the reason I don’t post much to be honest, that and the fact I am busy trading!
Having said that, the underlying theme is HAVE A PLAN and I won’t back away from that statement. It took me years of struggle to realise it.
I was looking for tradable move around the 17th of November the chart says it all, once again the cycle has delivered, the plan has been executed and the rest as they say is history.
If you had a solid plan that pervious post was solid gold. Without a plan that information was useless.
I went against everything the economists and media were saying.
That’s possibly why it looked like garbage, I mean the media is always right, right ?
Why would I do that? Why would GANN do that?
If you don’t have a solid plan or just want to know more about GANN and how he did this maybe we can help.
Promises of blue sky are great - Profit in the bank is better.
May the GoFR be with you.
WAR DATES - Are they cycles?
Can they help you make additional profit ?
GANN was a master of Cycles, he believed that everything revolved around them and that everything repeated. I have done sufficient work to prove to myself that this is in fact the case.
Although they may not manifest themselves the same way, the markets will do roughly the same thing, but the visible cause, the thing you will see or the media will report will be different, they ARE NOT the underlying cause. But knowing the dates and linking the dots may be useful.
They can also help you manage your trades. Which is really what my last commentary Forecasting was about .
For example if a credit crisis in one part of the world appeared to cause the last Market crash, it may be political unrest in a different part of the world that appears to causes the next one. IN any case you will see a market crash when its cycle has run out.
One of the things GANN was big on was anniversaries, these in themselves are cycles, so I thought it was timely to write a small not to remind you of a particularly special anniversary today. I will be writing a much longer piece for the Supply and Demand subscribers necxt week, and demonstrate how these things might fit in to the bigger picture and other cycles like the real estate and economic cycles.
So to today. September 1st is 83 years since WW2 commenced - and tomorrow 2nd September marks the anniversary of the cessation of WW2 when Japan surrendered. Both important dates historically.
Why would I put them together here. Look at the dates and have a deeper think about them what do they represent mathematically - remember GANN said “Mathematics was the only true science”.
fret he dates above we can deduce WW2 ran for 6 years and 1 day.
6 years is 72 months, 72 its half of GANNS famous 144 count, which is 12 squared.
Can you see the connection?
I have written this to demonstrate how many of the things GANN appears to mention abstractly or randomly are in fact connected - you just need to look at it from a different perspective.
If you look at the Indices today, ive used the DOW chart here, you can see a clear reaction . A reversal bar. If you are interested look ay 1 September 1939 this too was a swing. The cycle I showed in the previous Blog also put in a swing within a day or so.
Note:
• We are 1/4 of a year +/- 90 calendar days from the June 1 swing .
This was an important time frame to GANN.
• The Dow retracement is currently supported at 66% of the run up from June 17.
• The low price was directly related to the current high price on the SQ 9 another of GANNS tools.
Will this be a final low in this move, probably not, but if you were in the short trade based on GANNS rules, armed with this knowledge and the fact it likes to swing early in the month, you might have tightened you stops and made a little more money, I did. If you are an intraday trader you could have been long within a few points of the low.
Further these cycles repeat in the form of conflict, applying this knowledge can have you armed and prepared for moves in your respective markets.
The trick is knowing what to look for, when, and without confusing yourself .
And more important having a tested plan to utilise the knowledge and trade it.
Knowledge is power, and it takes time to build knowledge, and more time to figure how to use it.
Promises of blue sky are great - Profit in the bank is better.
May the GoFR be with you.
Forecasting, are we there yet?
One of the greatest desires in trading is the lure of FORECASTING.
Some sectors of the market say it cant be done , others say you can only do it with Astrology and black chicken feathers.
I’m here to tell you it can be done, and I mean, how cool to get the high and low of the run, it’s certainly good for your EGO.
I always say, I’ll give you those High and Low Ticks for free and you can give me all the unloved ticks in between and I’ll give them a good home !
GANN is revered for having an uncanny knack of getting these thing right, and he did , but he got them wrong also.
He actually left a set of clear instructions for the basis of how he did his forecasts, but most people just gloss over them looking for something much more complex and complicated.
Our workshop attendees and of late subscribers, have been privy to my forecasts and I think they will agree I’ve been pretty accurate using GANNs own words.
So, heres a freebie !! But there are questions or strings attached !
The chart posted here is the current curve we are following. I’m sure you’d agree it’s not bad for a forecast done several years ago.
Yes, they can be done decades in advance but why bother?
This one is banging away often swing for swing bar for bar. I’d say good enough for government work or a little better.
The red curve is based on closing prices so the turns can appear out a day or so and we are currently approximately a week ahead of the curve.
By now you have screen shot the chart, loaded 17—24 October into your mind and probably won’t read any further!
My First question, the strings if you like, is this.
Will October be a retest low for this cycle, an interim turn or is this market going to hell in a basket ? I mean that’s what the media are saying, right ? Remember GANN was a contrarian, as am I. Think about what that may mean in terms of the press commentary and the chart.
My Second and more important question is this. How will you use it ?
Most will gobble up the chart and not even read these words then blindly go out and try and buy or sell the market on the cycle dates only to be lucky sometimes, but more often than not cut to bits, or if they get on the move won’t be able to hold the trade long enough to make any decent money from it.
Then they blame the forecast , blame the publisher who may have spent decades on his craft, as they did GANN.
FACT - It’s not the forecasts’ fault…… It’s GREED, FEAR , FOMO and the lack of a solid TRADING PLAN that’s hurting you.
No matter how accurate a forecast is, they fail, they can scootch around by a day or week or just be plain wrong.
As a forecaster we don’t know what we dont know until we know it, or we may simply miss something. That’s why GANN had tested trading rules which over the decades became intuition to him.
For those that don’t realise, GANN also got his forecasts wrong !
Most people never gather the data and check what he left, it takes lots of time and effort. I have done this work over the decades as part of my proof of concept work on his material. I’ve shown some of these things to our workshop attendees.
There are a couple of public forecasts in his work, late in his career, when you’d think he would be at the pinnacle of his craft. These examples would have gotten him an ‘F’ in class. If you take them for granted, as written, you are missing one of his greatest lessons.
Does this mean he failed? - not at all - in fact it demonstrates his ability to trade through these things and he tells you how to do it!
His books tell you how he did it, but that’s more than a weeks work. That’s where we can help we have done the work..
Enjoy the Free Fish, BUT remember without knowledge some Fish can kill you !
If you don’t have a solid plan or just want to know more about GANN maybe we can help.
Promises of blue sky are great - Profit in the bank is better.
May the GoFR be with you.