Forecasting, are we there yet?
One of the greatest desires in trading is the lure of FORECASTING.
Some sectors of the market say it cant be done , others say you can only do it with Astrology and black chicken feathers.
I’m here to tell you it can be done, and I mean, how cool to get the high and low of the run, it’s certainly good for your EGO.
I always say, I’ll give you those High and Low Ticks for free and you can give me all the unloved ticks in between and I’ll give them a good home !
GANN is revered for having an uncanny knack of getting these thing right, and he did , but he got them wrong also.
He actually left a set of clear instructions for the basis of how he did his forecasts, but most people just gloss over them looking for something much more complex and complicated.
Our workshop attendees and of late subscribers, have been privy to my forecasts and I think they will agree I’ve been pretty accurate using GANNs own words.
So, heres a freebie !! But there are questions or strings attached !
The chart posted here is the current curve we are following. I’m sure you’d agree it’s not bad for a forecast done several years ago.
Yes, they can be done decades in advance but why bother?
This one is banging away often swing for swing bar for bar. I’d say good enough for government work or a little better.
The red curve is based on closing prices so the turns can appear out a day or so and we are currently approximately a week ahead of the curve.
By now you have screen shot the chart, loaded 17—24 October into your mind and probably won’t read any further!
My First question, the strings if you like, is this.
Will October be a retest low for this cycle, an interim turn or is this market going to hell in a basket ? I mean that’s what the media are saying, right ? Remember GANN was a contrarian, as am I. Think about what that may mean in terms of the press commentary and the chart.
My Second and more important question is this. How will you use it ?
Most will gobble up the chart and not even read these words then blindly go out and try and buy or sell the market on the cycle dates only to be lucky sometimes, but more often than not cut to bits, or if they get on the move won’t be able to hold the trade long enough to make any decent money from it.
Then they blame the forecast , blame the publisher who may have spent decades on his craft, as they did GANN.
FACT - It’s not the forecasts’ fault…… It’s GREED, FEAR , FOMO and the lack of a solid TRADING PLAN that’s hurting you.
No matter how accurate a forecast is, they fail, they can scootch around by a day or week or just be plain wrong.
As a forecaster we don’t know what we dont know until we know it, or we may simply miss something. That’s why GANN had tested trading rules which over the decades became intuition to him.
For those that don’t realise, GANN also got his forecasts wrong !
Most people never gather the data and check what he left, it takes lots of time and effort. I have done this work over the decades as part of my proof of concept work on his material. I’ve shown some of these things to our workshop attendees.
There are a couple of public forecasts in his work, late in his career, when you’d think he would be at the pinnacle of his craft. These examples would have gotten him an ‘F’ in class. If you take them for granted, as written, you are missing one of his greatest lessons.
Does this mean he failed? - not at all - in fact it demonstrates his ability to trade through these things and he tells you how to do it!
His books tell you how he did it, but that’s more than a weeks work. That’s where we can help we have done the work..
Enjoy the Free Fish, BUT remember without knowledge some Fish can kill you !
If you don’t have a solid plan or just want to know more about GANN maybe we can help.
Promises of blue sky are great - Profit in the bank is better.
May the GoFR be with you.
BEANS - Follow up….
Beans have finally broken to the downside as expected BUT were Mars and Jupiter useful it’s for you to decide?
These things make great fodder for Web Pages and Newsletters; Showing things that on the surface look great but as a trader on the coal face it’s a different thing.
If you had gone short on the 31st May , basis the Mars Jupiter conjunction you would either need a stop a minimum 35+ points away from the high or heaven forbid no stop at all ( I would NEVER do this, nor would GANN ) as the market did 2 days down and then 7 trading days up to make a new high.!!
34 3/4 points or around $1750 a contract higher .
The only direct hit from memory was Feb 1951 and Gann never wrote about it. Why?
In the end you decide if you could trade this as a stand alone set up, if you can the next one is around 14 August 2024 !
There is a way to use this information, and I’ll be sharing that at the next workshop.
In the mean time we will keep banging away, with the Mechanical System, where there was another +/- 35 points a contract to be had when the market moved higher AFTER the Mars Jupiter Conjunction.
If you dont have a solid plan maybe we can help - promises of blue sky is great - Profit in the bank is better.
May the GoFR be with you.
BEANS - Are we there yet ?
It seems timely to write a note on Soybeans.
Gann traded them and wrote about them extensively, and there is a famous chart showing the 1948 top that is touted by many to hold all Ganns secrets !
On this chart are 2 planetary lines that intersect , this is where the planets were conjunct. Mars and Jupiter were the culprits .
There is a lot more to be said about this chart, but we are at an interesting juncture , with a Mars and Jupiter conjunction occurring on 30 May this year. The issue is these things dont always give turns, but given the cycle should be done, they are worth watching.
If you have a solid trading plan these things can be powerful editions to your arsenal.
Rock - Paper - Scissors …
17 Feb
Remember that game when you were a kid?
About now you're thinking he’s nuts what could this have to do with trading ?
To this end I have often though about trading in terms of a game of Rock Paper Scissors but with 4 components.
Fear, Greed, Profit, and Trading Plan
But be conscious that in trading fear has 2 components
1. Fear of loss – you won’t enter the trade and
2. Fear Of Missing Out - you won’t take profit or quit - that’s essentially greed.
and
Trading plans include trade management.
Here are the rules of the game and think about these VERY carefully.
• Fear beats profit
• Greed beats profit
• Fear beats greed
• Trading Plan beats Fear
• Trading Plan beats Greed
• Trading plan and profit are neutral they go hand in hand.
Think about this for a second. Absorb it well for it may be the best analogy I have come up with for this.
What can you learn from this game ?
For me it is this: the only way to win this game is play Trade Plan / Management every time.
This is how I deliver constant 3 figure percentage returns every year.
This is essentially what GANN was teaching ..
No plan - no sustainable profit .
Thats where we can help ….
May the GoFR be with you….
Form Reading - The Art in the Chart
Gann was an incredible form reader there is no doubt about that.
Today I thought I’d share something from this weeks Supply and Demand letter. A pattern I like to watch for .
Multiple bottoms above important lows can often be a sign of strength - I have had out subscribers on alert for some time in relation to this chart.
In this case we have a double bottom , above a double bottom right around one of GANNS seasonal dates .
For an astute trader there is a lot more to see in this Silver chart.
The current move could well be a retest before moving higher.
As always we have to wait and see and trade our plan, but being forewarned is being forearmed.
May the GoFR be with you ..